| Summary of Contents
MARKET OUTLOOK Pause and Play
Despite hurdles, equity markets could head up after the recent consolidation phase Globally, data points remain mixed; US fiscal cliff and Europe's Spain test are big hurdles ahead: Though the aggressive monetary measures adopted by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) have improved liquidity and lifted sentiments, the economic data points remain mixed and the structural problems have kept the economic revival sluggish and uncertainties alive. In the near future, the outcome of the US presidential elections and the steps taken by the new government to avoid the aftermath of the withdrawal of tax incentives (fiscal cliff) would influence the direction of the equity markets globally. In Europe, the ability to smoothly implement the bail-out of Spain on mutually agreeable terms is a key event ahead. Domestically, follow-up on policy actions keenly awaited: Though the recent policy measures announced by the government did positively surprise the markets and led to a smart rally, but further re-rating of the Indian equity market would depend on the follow-up policy actions and the government's ability to manage legislative nod for the key bills/proposals in the forthcoming winter session of the parliament. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also held back from cutting policy rates and the monetary easing cycle is likely to get delayed by a few months more. On the positive side, the liquidity condition has improved significantly with the wholesale rates (certificate of deposits etc) declining by over 200 basis points since April this year. Q2 earnings-marginally ahead of expectations; material earnings upgrades some time away: The earnings growth for the second quarter was slightly ahead of expectations, though the expectations themselves were quite conservative. There are clear signs of slowing momentum in the revenue growth and easing of the volume growth in the consumer segment. But the margin pressure is abating too and supporting the growth in the earnings. The consensus earnings estimates are unlikely to be upgraded in a hurry due to a patchy economic growth, easing revenue growth momentum and uncertainty over the implementation of the policies announced recently. However, we expect to see a positive fall-out of the improving liquidity condition and possible rate cuts in the January-March quarter on the FY2014 earnings estimates. Outlook-hurdles ahead but our bias remains positive; mid-caps could outperform: A slew of events (in India and globally) ahead are likely to increase volatility but would also give direction to the equity market that has been stuck in a very narrow trading range for the past few weeks. However, we maintain our positive bias as the market is entering a seasonally strong period. The cues are also positive on the policy front with the increasing assertiveness of the top brass in the United Progressive Alliance government to push forward the policy reforms.
Further, the Sensex' valuation is still at a discount to the long-term average which leaves scope for further rally in the coming months. We expect the mid-caps to perform better in the next stage of the ongoing multi-month rally. We also have a constructive view on index constituents that have been underperformers for the last couple of years. Risk: A possible flare-up in risk aversion due to global events and/or sudden upsurge in crude oil prices are the key risk to our prognosis.
STOCK UPDATE Godrej Consumer Products
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs796
Current market price: Rs688 Upgrade to Buy with revised price target of Rs796 Result highlights -
Lower OPM disappointed the Street: Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL)'s (consolidated) results were below our as well as the Street's expectations (by nearly 7%) largely on account of a lower than expected operating profit margin (OPM) during the quarter. The OPM stood at 15.6% as against our expectation of 18.9% in Q2FY2013. The second quarter of a fiscal is normally lean for the Latin American business and the African hair extension business, resulting in a lower margin for the international business (which contributes over 40% of the total revenues). The quarter saw the launch/relaunch of products in the soap, hair colour and home care segments in the domestic and international markets. This led to an increase in the advertisement and promotional spending in Q2FY2013. However, the management has indicated that the benign palm oil prices and the better performance of the Latin American and African businesses in the second half of the fiscal (which is seasonally stronger) should help GCPL to a post better margin in the second half of FY2013. -
Performance snapshot: In Q2FY2013 GCPL's consolidated revenues grew by 34.3% year on year (YoY) to Rs1,600.3 crore driven by a strong 19% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in the domestic business and a 32% Y-o-Y organic growth in the international business. The gross profit margin (GPM) stood flat at 53.6% in Q2FY2013. An increase of around 64% YoY in the employee cost to Rs133.3 crore and a rise of 38% YoY in the other expenses affected the margin during the quarter. The OPM declined by 233 basis points YoY to 15.6%. Hence, the operating profit increased by 17% YoY to Rs249.0 crore. However, lower interest cost and tax outgo led to a 22% Y-o-Y increase in the reported profit after tax (PAT) to Rs159.3 crore. -
Outlook and valuation: The process of integration of the recent international acquisitions (including Darling Group and Chilean acquisition) is as per schedule. GCPL is focusing on innovation-led and distribution-led growth in the domestic and international markets. Cross-pollination is another growth pillar that the company is banking on for future growth. We believe the company is well poised to grow its top line and bottom line at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% and 28% respectively over FY2012-15.
We have fine-tuned our earnings estimates to factor in the higher than expected revenues earned during the quarter and the lower than estimated OPM for the first half of FY2013. At the current market price the stock trades at 29.7x its FY2013E earnings per share (EPS) of Rs23.2 and 23.7x its FY2014E EPS of Rs29.0. We have revised our price target to Rs796 (valuing the stock at 25x its average estimated earnings of FY2014-15). In view of decent upside and strong earning visibility, we upgrade our recommendation on the stock from Hold to Buy. Apollo Tyres
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs102
Current market price: Rs85 Price target revised to Rs102 Conference call takeaways Raw material cost stable, margins unlikely to improve much
In spite of the sluggish global demand, the natural rubber prices are unlikely to decline due to production cuts announced by the major rubber-producing nations, like Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia. With the end of the tapping season, the rubber prices would inch up again in Q4FY2013. Also, with the crude prices remaining firm, the prices of other raw materials are also expected to remain at the similar levels. We expect the margins to improve from 10.1% in H1FY2013 to 10.7% in H2FY2013. European volumes decline but change in mix and currency benefit improved revenues
The European operations volume declined by 12% in Q2FY2013 in line with a decline in the industry volumes. However, with the improved mix and a favourable currency, the revenues grew by 6% YoY. The demand for tyres in the European market is sluggish and Apollo Tyres had to undertake a production cut for the first time to align the inventory. Valuation
Given the margin disappointment in the stand-alone operations, we are incorporating a 40-basis-point margin decline in FY2013 as compared with our previous estimates. We are also factoring a 30-basis-point margin decline in FY2014 estimates. Owing to reduced stand-alone earnings, our consolidated EPS estimates for FY2013 and FY2014 stand revised downwards by 4.6% and 3.3% respectively.
Also, the proposed fund raising for the new plant through the promoter placement and the QIP route would lead to a equity dilution of about 20%, which would be the key overhang on the stock price. We maintain our Hold recommendation on Apollo Tyres with a price target of Rs102. Divi's Laboratories
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs1,246
Current market price: Rs1,148 Limited upside; downgrade rating to Hold Result highlights -
Q2FY2013 performance marginally below expectations, forex plays spoilsport: Divi's Laboratories (Divi's) reported a 33.5% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) rise in the net sales to Rs472.6 crore, which is 2% lower than our estimates. The operating profit margin (OPM) jumped 342 basis points YoY to 39.1%; however, it is marginally lower than our estimates of 39.5%. The lower than expected OPM is mainly attributed to higher employees' costs, power costs and manufacturing expenses. Nonetheless, the profit before tax (PBT), excluding the foreign exchange (forex) loss, jumped by 31.5% YoY to Rs175.10 crore. However, due to provisions of forex loss of Rs20.7crore, the net profit recorded a restricted growth of 11.2% YoY to Rs118 crore. Excluding forex losses, the adjusted net profit jumped by 30.8% YoY to Rs138.8 crore, which is in line with our expectations. -
We fine-tune estimates and maintain price target but change recommendation to Hold due to limited upside: We expect H2FY2013 to be slower due to high base effect and pressure on margins' on higher manufacturing costs. We have marginally reduced our earning estimates by 3.3% for FY2013 but kept the estimates for FY2014 intact. We maintain our price target of Rs1,246 (20x FY2014E earnings). However, we change our recommendation for the stock from Buy to Hold, given the limited upside over the current market price. Allahabad Bank
Cluster: Cannonball
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs150
Current market price: Rs135 Asset quality deteriorates, downgrade to Hold Result highlights -
Allahabad Bank posted disappointing set of numbers for Q2FY2013 as the net profits declined by 52% year on year (YoY) to Rs234.2 crore, which is significantly lower than our estimates. This was mainly due to a subdued growth in the net interest rate (NII; down 10.9% YoY) and higher provisions (up 12.8% YoY). -
The NIIs declined by 37 basis points quarter on quarter (QoQ) to 2.80%, mainly due to interest reversal (Rs165 crore) and reduction in base rates. A sharp dip in the net interest margins (NIMs) affected the growth in NII. -
The advances grew by 15.8% YoY, while the deposits grew 14.0% YoY. The current and savings account (CASA) ratio increased to 30.3% from 29.6% inQ1FY2013 led by a 12.2% QoQ growth in current account deposits.The asset quality showed a sharp deterioration as slippages increased to Rs1,720crore, which mainly came from restructured advances. Further, the bank also restructured Rs2,012 crore of advances during the quarter, thereby taking the restructured loan book to 11.5% of advances, which is among the highest in the industry. -
The non-interest income growth was suppressed as it declined by 2.4% QoQ (down 2.3% YoY). Moreover, the cost-to-income ratio after falling to 40.8% in Q1FY2013 rose to 45.7% in Q2FY2013 due to a fall in the NII and a 10.3% year-on-year (YoY) increase in the other operating expenses. Valuations and outlook
The Q2FY2013 results of Allahabad Bank were disappointing as a sharp increase in the non-performing assets (NPAs) and dip in the margins affected the earnings. Going ahead, a decline in the margins and deterioration in the asset quality are likely to weaken the operating performance. Therefore, we have revised our estimates downwards and expect the return on asset (RoA) and return on equity (RoE) to decline to ~16% and 0.9% respectively. We revise our price target to Rs150 and downgrade the recommendation to Hold. India Cements
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs105
Current market price: Rs98 Price target revised to Rs105 Result highlights -
Earnings below estimates: In Q2FY2013, India Cements posted a net profit of Rs49 crore (decreased by 29.6% year on year [YoY]), which is below our and the Street's estimates on account of a higher than expected cost pressure in terms of power & fuel cost (increased by 18.3% on per tonne basis) and freight charges (increased by 15.5% on per tonne basis). Further, the company has booked around Rs10 crore of foreign exchange (forex) gain, which lowered down the interest cost to Rs66.7 crore (declined by 25.5% YoY). Hence, in spite of lower interest cost, the earnings came below our estimates. -
Revenue growth supported by cement realisation; IPL income drops significantly: The net sales of the company grew by 3.1% YoY to Rs1,122.7 crore, which also includes revenues from the Indian Premier League (IPL), wind power and shipping businesses. The revenues from the cement division (cement is its core business) improved by 6.7% YoY to Rs1,093.9 crore, largely driven by a 4.4% growth in its average blended cement realisation. However, on the volume front, the southern region continues to witness a lacklustre demand environment. Hence, the volume grew by just 2.3% YoY to 2.48 million tonne (mt). On the other hand, the revenues from the IPL division dropped significantly to Rs5.2 crore as against Rs51.5 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The shipping division booked Rs12.9 crore revenues during the quarter. -
Cost pressure largely offset benefit of improvement in cement realisation; margin came under pressure: On the margin front, in spite of an improvement in the cement realisation by 4.4% YoY, the continued cost pressure-in terms of (a) higher power & fuel cost (up 18.3% on per tonne basis); (b) higher freight charges (up 15.5% YoY); and (c) higher employee cost (up 14.9% YoY)to Rs80.6 crore)-largely offset the benefit of the increased realisation and resulted in margin pressure. Hence, the operating profit margin (OPM) contracted by 487 basis points YoY to 18.3%. The overall cost of production on per tonne basis has increased by 8.8% YoY and the EBITDA per tonne lowered by 12.3% YoY to Rs777. Consequently, the operating profit of the company decreased by 18.6% on YoY to Rs205.1 crore. -
Decline in interest cost due to forex gain: The interest cost during the quarter declined by 25.5% YoY to Rs66.7 crore on account of a forex gain to the tune of Rs10 crore. Hence, adjusting for the same, the net interest cost works out to Rs76.7 crore. The total borrowings of the company stood at Rs3,045 crore as compared with Rs2,700 crore at the end of FY2012. The total outstanding debt of the company is expected to come down gradually in the coming two years time frame. -
CCI has imposed a penalty of Rs187.5 crore; the company filed an appeal in Tribunal: The Competition Commission of India (CCI) has imposed a penalty on around 11 cement companies for making a cartel and managing cement price at higher level. As per the CCI order, India Cements will have to pay Rs187.5 crore as a penalty. However, the company filed an appeal before the Tribunal. Accordingly, the company has not made any provision for the CCI penalty during the quarter. -
Downgrading earnings estimates for FY2013 and FY2014: We are downgrading our earnings estimates for FY2013 and FY2014, mainly to incorporate the higher than expected cost pressure in terms of power & fuel cost and a lower than expected volume growth. Consequently, the revised earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY2013 and FY2014 now stand at Rs9.3 and Rs10.7 respectively. -
Maintain Hold with revised price target of Rs105: The demand for cement in the key market (southern region) of India Cements is likely to remain sluggish even in the H2FY2013. Hence, we expect the cement volume of the company to largely remain flat compared with FY2012. On the realisation front, we expect the average realisation for FY2013 to remain higher compared with that in FY2012. However, in order to deliver higher volumes, the realisation in the southern region could come under pressure. Further, the cost pressure in terms of any adverse movement in the price of imported coal and higher freight cost are likely to keep the margin under pressure. Hence, we maintain our Hold recommendation on stock with a revised price target of Rs105. At the current market price, the stock trades at a PE of 9.1x discounting its EPS for FY2014 and EV/EBITDA of 4.7x its FY2014E earnings. Crompton Greaves
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Under review
Current market price: Rs113 Disappointment continues, maintain cautious view Result highlights -
Results disappoint; subsidiaries losses way ahead of expectations: In Q2FY2013, Crompton Greaves Ltd (CGL)'s consolidated results were much below our expectations led by huge losses in its overseas subsidiaries and margin pressure seen in the domestic business. The company has already incurred losses to the tune of ~Rs130 crore in H1FY2013, on account of restructuring in the Belgium operations. These losses relate to expenses on account of reworking, consultation and logistical costs and site maintenance loss due to adverse working environment in the plant. -
Belgium plant restructuring woes to remain in H2FY2013: The company has initiated consultation process with the Belgian Works Council to downsize the workforce by 260 employees for which the severance benefit cost is likely to be incurred in H2FY2013. Apart from this, the transfer of existing orders from the Belgian to the Hungarian plant may result in execution delays, raising concerns of liquidated damages to the tune of 15% being slapped on the company. Hence, these concerns would remain an overhang for the company in H2FY2013. -
Order inflow position robust: The consolidated order inflow for the quarter grew 14% year on year (YoY) to Rs2,575 crore. This growth was led by a 15% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in the power system orders and a 10% Y-o-Y growth in the industrial system orders. The consolidated order backlog position for the quarter stood at Rs9,400 crore (up 32% on a yearly basis). During the quarter, India had the highest contribution of 49% to the total order inflow, followed by 25% from Europe and the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region and 17% by the Americas. The management believes that there is a huge potential in the Indian extra high voltage (EHV) segment market and hopes to recover in the coming quarters the market share lost to the Chinese and Korean peers. Demand scenario in the European market still lags; therefore, the company is trying to geographically diversify its operations. Earlier, the management had indicated that the prices of the power systems had bottomed out but the scenario seems to have deteriorated further since then, which could result in a margin pressure in the future. -
Revenues and margin guidance revised downwards: As suspected, after the Q2FY2013 results, the management has revised downwards the target for top line growth to 8-10% for FY2013 (from 12-14% earlier) and the margin guidance to ~5% (from 8-9% earlier). The management remains unsure of the pricing environment and hence was unsure if the margins would sustain in both the domestic and overseas markets. Further, restructuring of its Belgium operations could result in cost overruns in coming few quarters. However, after the restructuring of its global operations, we feel that the company's profitability may start to improve from FY2014 onwards. -
Estimates downgraded majorly for FY2013: In view of the impending restructuring costs and employee severance cost in the overseas operations, we have downgraded our estimates for FY2013 sharply by 36%, while FY2014 earnings estimates has been revised downwards by 7.5%. Overall, we are now expecting the company to post a yearly growth rate of 32% over FY2012-14E on a low base of FY2012. However, a better offtake in the overseas orders, uptick in Power Grid Corporation of India's order awarding activities and stability in the input cost, especially in metals like copper, aluminium and steel, could provide some respite from margins dragging down the overall net profitability in the coming quarters. -
Stock to languish in near term, avoid: The management's outlook in the power transmission and distribution (T&D) and the industrial sectors continue to remain uncertain. A slowdown in the capital expenditure (capex) in the domestic and overseas market (mainly Europe) also doesn't augur well for the company. Further, losses related to the restructuring of its Belgium operations are likely to continue in H2FY2013. These concerns were reflected in the downward revision of the revenue growth and margin guidance by the management. We believe that the turnaround would take at least a few more quarters and the stock would continue to languish in the meantime. Thus, we maintain our cautious view on the stock and do not recommend bottom fishing at lower levels. Existing customers can hold on to the stock with at least 12 months view. We keep the target price under review. Ratnamani Metals and Tubes
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs138
Current market price: Rs126 Price target revised to Rs138 Result highlights -
Forex gains boost margins: For the quarter ended September 2012, Ratnamani Metals & Tubes (Ratnamani) reported an 880-basis-point year-on-year (Y-o-Y) jump in its operating profit margin (OPM) to 24.9% boosted by a foreign exchange (forex) gain of Rs15.9 crore against a forex loss of Rs5.6 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Excluding the forex gain benefit, the margin improved by 160 basis points to 19.6%. The improvement in the margin can be attributed to the Y-o-Y improvement in the realisations (up 15.4% for the stainless steel [SS] pipes segment and up 11% for the carbon steel [CS] pipes segment). The management expects the margin to be in the range of 16-18% ex currency on a steady state basis. -
Revenues remains flat due to soft performance of CS pipes: For the quarter ended September 2012, Ratnamani reported a mixed performance with the SS pipes segment reporting a 32.1% Y-o-Y revenue growth and the CS pipes segment reporting a 37.7% Y-o-Y revenue fall. The net sales for the quarter dropped 2.1% to Rs301.8 crore. The overall volumes were flat, whereas the realisation improved year on year (YoY) during the quarter. The SS pipes segment's contribution to the total revenues increased to 61.9% from 43.4% in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. -
Net profit surges by 89.7%: On the back of a 50.7% Y-o-Y jump in the operating profit, a 51.7% decrease in the interest cost (on the back of the local currency's appreciation against the dollar) and a higher effective tax rate (34.6% against 32.6% in Q2FY2012), the net profit jumped by 89.7% to Rs44.5 crore. The company's interest cost decreased due to a decrease in the debt to about Rs186 crore against Rs255 crore as of June 2012. The debt reduced because of repayment and the strengthening rupee. The management expects the debt position to increase with the company taking up short-term debt for execution of new contracts. -
Demand environment expected to improve in the next two to three months: As per the management, the demand environment for the company remains mixed. The CS pipes segment continues to languish as the country faces over capacity which is leading to the undercutting of prices. In the SS pipes segment, the demand is bottoming out but it would take about two to three months to actually ascertain if the demand environment has improved. The SS pipes segment is driven by value-added products. The company saw the deliveries related to a nuclear plant deal taking place in the quarter. In the domestic market, the company feels the refinery sector is leading the demand whereas the power sector is facing volatility in demand.\ -
Valuation: Ratnamani reported a slightly improved performance for Q2FY2013 on account of an improvement in the margin (ex forex gain). The revenue performance on a Y-o-Y basis remained soft, marred by the sluggish performance of the CS pipes business. In view of the current quarter's performance, we have tweaked our revenue estimates for FY2013 and FY2014 by 3.4% and 3.6% respectively. However, we have revised upwards our earnings estimates for FY2013 and FY2014 by 9.6% and 7.3% respectively. Accordingly, we have increased our price target to Rs138 (5x FY2014E earnings). We maintain our Hold rating on the stock. The risk to our rating and the price target remains a faster than expected revival in the demand environment. Greaves Cotton
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs86
Current market price: Rs74 Engineering growth Conference call takeaways Three-wheeler segment sales recover as Piaggio outperforms industry
The three-wheeler volumes recorded an improvement in Q2FY2013. As against the volume decline of 19% YoY in the industry volumes, the volumes declined to 8.2% YoY in Q2FY2013. Further, Piaggio Vehicles (Piaggio), which is a marquee client for GCL, gained market share in Q2FY2013 that boosted GCL volumes. As against the industry decline of 8.2% YoY, Piaggio volumes declined 4.7%. The engine volumes of GCL in Q2FY2013 grew 20% quarter on quarter (QoQ) and remained flat on a sequential basis. Margins to improve in H2FY2013 on account of improved revenues and overall cost control
An improved revenue outlook on account of the festive season in Q3FY2013 and a better economic outlook in Q4FY2013 would give a positive fillip to the margins. Further, the overall cost control measures in form of manpower rationalisation and improved material sourcing would boost the margins. We expect the margins to improve from 12.4% in H1FY2013 to 13.2% in H2FY2013. New product introductions to drive growth
The introduction of new products would be the key to drive growth for GCL. The introduction of diesel and electrical pump sets would drive growth in the agricultural equipment segment. Also, the introduction of concrete pumps and batching plant would boost revenues in the construction equipment segment. The generator division is likely to see spurt on account of introduction of lower kVA sets. Valuation
Improved margins are likely to be seen in H2FY2013 on account of an increased revenue offtake. We have marginally raised FY2013 estimates from Rs5.9/share to Rs6.0/share to incorporate improved margins. However, our FY2014 estimates remain unchanged at Rs6.9/share. We maintain our price target of Rs86/share and Hold recommendation on the stock. The trigger for the stock remains the induction of its engine in a new vehicle.
VIEWPOINT Cipla Strong results Result highlights -
Higher volume and favourable currency fuel top line growth: Cipla reported 23.9% year -on-year (Y-o-Y) rise in net sales to Rs2,145.9 crore, which is 7% better than our estimates. The growth has been mainly driven by exports, which grew 33% year on year (YoY) to Rs1,213 crore on the account of higher volume and favourable currency. The revenues from the domestic finished dosages jumped by 13.5% YoY to Rs962 crore. -
OPM expands 680 basis points on better product mix: The operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 680 basis points YoY to 29.4%, mainly due to a better product mix (lower proportion of anti-retrovirals and high contribution of anti-depressants, mainly Esciltalopram or generic Lexapro) and a favourable currency movement. As a result, raw material costs declined to 36.7% of net sales during the quarter from 41.1% in Q2FY2012. -
PAT jumps by 62% despite higher effective tax rate: During the quarter, the effective tax rate rose by 288 basis points YoY to 24.4%. Nonetheless, the net profit after tax rose by 61.8% YoY to Rs500 crore, which is 12% higher than our and the Street's estimates. -
No major capex going forward: The company is expected to spend Rs400-500 crore as capital expenditure (capex), mainly towards setting up an active pharmaceutical ingredient facility and research and development (R&D) centres in FY2013. Going forward, the company has no major capex commitments. This would give better leverage and the return on capital is likely to improve significantly. -
Management maintains FY2013 guidance: Despite a stronger H1FY2013 performance, the management has maintained its revenue guidance of 15% for FY2013. Outlook and view
Cipla's H1FY2013 performance has been a positive surprise. Although a few non-recurring items like supply of Esciltalopram (brand name - Lexapro; Teva has exclusivity on this product till August 2012), which must have earned thick margin, may not fetch similar profits in H2FY2013. Also, supplies of anti-retroviral products, which make discrete appearance in the revenue line as and when a related tender comes up, may dilute the margin of the company. But in H1FY2013, we believe the base business itself has shown a better operating performance.
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